سخنرانی دکتر #آرنگ_کشاورزیان
https://as.nyu.edu/faculty/arang-keshavarzian.html
مطالب زیر یادداشتها , برداشتها و نظرات شخصی ایرج افتخاری از سخنان دکتر #کشاورزیان می باشند
The following notes are views and opinion of Iraj Eftekhari's from the lecture by Dr Arang Keshavarzian and do not necessarily reflect Dr Keshavarzian's opinion and are not the official policy or position of NIU
What are the conditions for transition from dictatorship to democracy?
What is the possibility of "GOZAR = transition" from dictatorship to democracy?
Main difference between any effort for success in a democracy and dictatorship is that if you are right and win, you will not kill and dissolve the minority.
Revolution = ENGHELAB in farsi
Thinker's after the French revolution saw revolution as a good phenomena.
Now if revolutions are good, how we create revolutions?
It is believed that CIA has done some of the most comprehensive studies of anti-revolutions and revolutions. In Iran before the events of 1979 following organizations were center for anti-revolution and revolution studies:
SAVAK = Central Intelligence Agency of Iran officially by the government
and unofficially by people against the government
Engineering Department of University of Tehran = Daneshkadeh Fanni Daneshgah Tehran
Every year at least there are three to five good books written about French revolution and/or Russian revolution and still it is not clear why revolutions happen, however there is agreement regarding how certain situation creates most environments for revolution.
If a government goes to war and be defeated, the humiliations of defeat, creates environment for revolution.
Also if financial collapse of economy happens in a society, then the environment will be ready for revolution.
Third factor is harsh, heavy and crushing bureaucracy which may create the environment for a revolution.
The consensus is that we can not predict revolutions.
Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the last king of Pahlavi dynasty who was overthrown by the revolution of 1979, went to war in Dhofar = ظفار , Oman and won the war. Shah's regime was not in financial trouble. The bureaucracy of Pahlavi government in Iran was not crushing people.
Let's talk about democracies
Some people believe that democracies are good, some believe, they aren't good.
How do we make democracy?
Why some authoritarian societies are susceptible to collapse?
Originally, democracy was created by minority societies of white men, without membership of women and colored people.
In modern history,
1940s many nations moved toward democracy
1960s many nations moved toward dictatorship
1970s Oil producing countries received a lot of cash
and many oil consumer countries had financial trouble
1980s Third wave of democracies happened
USSR collapsed
Many countries moved toward democracy
Military dictatorships gave power to civilians
The difference between dictatorships in reference to revolutions:
Monarchy dictatorships are the most stable dictatorships against revolutions
Military dictatorships are sensitive to revolutions except in middle east
Single party dictatorships are very stable against revolutions
It is easy to talk like a democrat
It is hard to act as a democrat
پرسش و پاسخ و گفتگو با سخنران دکتر آرنگ کشاورزیان
In second part of the meeting with Dr Keshavarzian, some of the audience commented regarding the lecture of Dr Keshavarzian and asked questions
Akbar Nikzad asked:
Is Turkey a democracy? If Trump comes to power again, is that a democracy?
Majid Majedi asked:
What should be our action against the dictatorship in Iran?
(FYI) People in Iran are asking for revenge!
Tony Roshangar commented:
Most of the policy changing power in the world comes from businessmen and business women. To create change in Iran, go with the flow is the solution; try to find something positive in the negatives. Tony is against any uprising and wants negotiation.
Dr keshavarzian replied:
Young people in Iran do not want to go with the flow and do not want to negotiate.
Iraj Eftekhari asked:
How we can hurt the regime in Iran and help the uprising and civil disobedience movement for civil rights?
Alex Pourian commented:
Iran was exceptional before and after events of 1979; During Shah's regime, even many leftists and communists in Iran were religious and prayed 5 times a day; so it is not surprising that Iranian old communists supported Ayatollah Khomeini during the revolution. Even now, old Iranian communists support the dictatorship in Iran and consider supporting the Islamic regime necessary and an anti-imperialist act; there are Iranian communists who live right now in America, have businesses and property, however they consider current American government not democratic and an Imperialist government; they consider themselves freedom fighters, supporting communist party of China, Putin's regime in Russia and Iranian regime. They support lifting the Unitec States sanctions on Islamic regime in Iran while supporting more civil rights in Iran too. These leftists of Iran do not wish for any change of government in Iran from Islamic regime to a Western democracy.
In Pahlavi regime, State and religion were mixed. Even Shah was religious or pretended that he is religious. Politicians in Iran were religious or kept their respect for religion. After 1979 revolution, the new Islamic government killed the opposition because leftists helped that revolutionary government to stablish power.
Now there is hope to topple the Islamic dictatorship in Iran, because this regime have lost the majority's support. New generation of people is ahead of us and they fight in different ways. we hope that their revolution do not follow revenge and killing of their opposition.
Dr Keshavarzian replied: Most people in middle east are religious; he agreed with Alex Pourian that even communists of Iran prayed 5 times a day. Relationship between Islam and democracy is complicated. A Muslim can be a a demarcate and practice democracy but Islam can not be democratic. Same as Christianity which is not democratic but a Christian can be a demarcate.
Dr Keshavarzian in general talked regarding above comments and questions:
What is democracy?
On one side of the spectrum there are people who say there has never been democracy, because every society excludes some groups.
On the other side there are people who consider democracy a political competition that who ever loses, will not be killed or jailed.
To answer Mr Akbar Nikzad's question: Turkey's politics is not free and fair and is a weak democracy; however Turkey is more democratic than Islamic Republic of Iran.
On the other hand Islamic Republic of Iran is more democratic than Saudi Arabia or Bahrain and North Korea is way far from a democracy.
Question should be : What is the most important characteristic of a democracy?
The most important characteristic of a democracy is that the majority rules but minority will not be killed and can continue their life with out being marginalized.
At this point, Dr Keshavarzian referred to Dr #Ali_Kadivar
Professor of sociology in Boston (Originally from Fasa / Fars / Iran)
https://www.bc.edu/bc-web/schools/mcas/departments/sociology/people/faculty-directory/ali-kadivar.html
Dr Kadivar's fields of interest: Politics, Comparative Historical Analysis, Social Movements, Global Sociology, Middle East, Iran
According to Dr Kadivar, the most predictor factor for success of a democracy after a revolution is if the struggle to success of the revolution and creation of democracy was last a long time.
Also if #Civil_Societies existed before the revolution and during the struggle.
For example: South Africa and Poland are successful democracies after their revolutions
South Africa had 30 years struggle up to success of its democracy
Poland had 70 years of struggle up to success of its democracy
Both South Africa and Poland had active Civil Societies during their struggle for democracy.
According to Dr #Kadivar, unfortunately the Iranians struggle is young and there are hardly any #Civil_Societies_in_Iran.
With out Civil Societies, it is hard to discuss any united action against the #dictatorship_in_Iran.
Regarding asking for justice and revenge against the Islamic regime in Iran:
Dr Keshavarzian introduced Dr. Arzoo_Osanloo, professor of law, Anthropologist and Sociologist, Director, University of Washington Middle East Center
Anthropology Ethnography Gender, Women, and Sexuality Studies Global and Transnational Studies Human Rights Islamic Studies Law Religion
https://lsj.washington.edu/people/arzoo-osanloo
Her efforts and struggle for banning execution of convicted people in Iran is remarkable. She travels and have meetings with the victim's families in Iran and asks them for mercy for the murders and prevents executions. This is a great effort toward banning execution of Political prisoners too because, in a society that victims families forgive the criminal murderers of their loved ones, it may be impossible for the government to execute political prisoners.
Dr Keshavarzian added that the government in Iran is incompetent, corrupt, etc
Therefore, people of Iran take the matter in their hand. Dr Keshavarzian insists that the opposition out side of Iran should find out what the people are doing in Iran. Talk to Iranians in Iran. Send letters to them. Find out who are the people whom the Islamic regime hates? Talk to any organization which has national reaching in Iran. Contact the organized groups in Iran. Work in small groups.
We are looking for workable solutions to effect the situation in Iran.
We know that Islamic Regime in Iran is relatively strong and superpowers do not see in their interest any change of this dictatorship. That's why sanctions did not make any foreign policy change in Iran although they curb the power of regime and its terrorist activities in middle east and around the world.
So the question is what we should do?
Dr Keshavarzian's answer:
We need to be humble. We can not dictate anything to the people in Iran. Talk to people in Iran and ask them.
We know that the world in 2023 is very different and governments understand that, people understand that too.
China's political move to go in middle east and create an agreement between Islamic regime in Iran and Islamic Saudi was a huge successful move.
Notice:
#Karim_Sadjadpour was mentioned as an unreliable source of information about Iranian politics. We must have different sources of information, including those we do not like.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karim_Sadjadpour
Dr Keshaverzian insists:
Revolutions are about small family decisions.
Iran is in protest cycle.
Islamic regime has no control; it is in surviving mode.
Revolutionary regimes are brutal.
Revolutionary regimes have extra ordinary power over society.
Islamic regime in Iran has an established bureaucracy and a very small but loyal team.
Majid Majedi, Iraj Eftekhari and Alex Pourian disagreed with Dr Arang Keshavarzian regarding the so called loyal team of the regime and stablished bureaucracy.
We know that according to the leaked conversation between regime's top officers, more than 35,000 law enforcement officers did not show up to work during #Mahsa_uprising.
All indicators show that the Islamic regime is weak. Many cities and towns in Iran protest on their own with out any central leadership.
Alex Pourian ask Dr Arang Keshavarzian:
Has Islamic regime in Iran got stronger in recent years and gone up or it has gone down?
Dr Arang Keshavarzian replied:
Last 12 years in Iran are called the poverty decade = دهه فلاکت
Islamic government of Iran have lost all advancements gained after the peace with Iraq.
Uprising and resistance against the Islamic government which was among the middle income class and upper middle income class is now among lower income class in small towns and country sides.
Dr #Bamshad commented:
For successful transition from dictatorship to democracy, it is necessary to have #Civil_Institutions
We must work on banning executions and banning torture anywhere.
Build democracy in your community and tolerate each other.
Regime is an improvisational regime.
We should listen to bases:
Woman, Life, Freedom
زن , زندگی , آزادی